Forest Change Assessment and Simulation Tool (ForCAST) - Water Model Output

The Forest Change Assessment and Simulation Tool (ForCAST) is designed to provide projections of how forest composition and the goods and services that forests provide will change from 2020 to 2100 under different management and climate scenarios on 3,800,000 acres in northeastern Minnesota. It also helps users understand how Minnesotans value those forest goods and services. Foundational landscape change modeling was done using the LANDIS-II model, allowing for a better understanding of forest composition and carbon. Subsequent wildlife habitat and water quality and quantity modeling were done using the WHINGS and HSPF models, respectively. All models were run for each of 12 unique combinations of the management and climate scenarios.

Modeling of the water quality and quantity was performed with the Hydrologic Simulation Program-Fortran software, WinHSPF. LANDIS-II simulation outputs and climate data were used as inputs to WinHSPF. Models are calibrated at the Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC) 8 watershed level with the base modeling output being HUC 12 watersheds. Model outputs were the 2-year flood rate, mean annual flow rate, spring high flow rate, summer low flow rate, total suspended solids concentration, total phosphorus concentration, and total nitrogen concentration.

More information and an interactive web application are available at mnforcast.org.

Data and Resources

Additional Info

Field Value
Maintainer Sergey Ilyushkin
Last Updated July 19, 2022, 14:07 (UTC)
Created July 18, 2022, 17:01 (UTC)